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- Good for
- Running the venue
Duty on a qualifying draught pint rises by only a few pence from 1 February 2027. Operators telling the trade press they may need 20p to 50p on the pint are talking about the whole cost stack, not the HMRC line alone. Guests hear one number. We need two: duty, and everything else.
This is a bar and drinks pricing decision. It is not a food recost and it is not a spend-per-head mix test.
What HMRC has published
From the HMRC uprating paper, Alcohol Duty rises with RPI by 4.55% from 1 February 2027. For qualifying draught beer, spirits, wine and other fermented products at 3.5% to under 8.5% ABV, the reduced draught rate moves to £20.34 per litre of pure alcohol, from the current £19.45 on the GOV.UK Alcohol Duty rates page. Standard (non-draught) beer in the same strength band moves to £23.61, from £22.58. We use those HMRC figures only.
Illustrative duty on one pint (label every derived penny as illustrative):
- Pint volume: 568 ml = 0.568 litres.
- Strength used for the example: 4.5% ABV.
- Pure alcohol: 0.568 × 0.045 = 0.02556 litres.
- Duty now: 0.02556 × £19.45 = £0.4971, about 49.7p.
- Duty from 1 February 2027: 0.02556 × £20.34 = £0.5199, about 52.0p.
- Duty rise: about 2.3p.
- If that rise is passed on with 20% VAT: 2.3p × 1.20 = about 2.7p.
The 2.3p (about 2.7p with VAT) is the duty rise on this illustrative pint, not the total duty in the glass. Total duty moves from about 49.7p to about 52.0p.
Duty alone does not explain a 20p move.
Operators' wider range, and ONS context
Trade reports on 5 November 2026 quote operators warning that pint prices may need to rise by roughly 20p to 50p as duty stacks on wages, rates, energy and supplier costs. That range is operator commentary, not an official figure. We attribute it as such.
The same reporting cites ONS shopping-price data putting the average draught lager pint at £4.55 and £4.75, a +20p year-on-year move (about 4.4%). The Morning Advertiser report does not name the months for those two figures. We treat them as ONS figures as reported in the trade press; we did not reopen the raw ONS extract for this draft.
Split duty from the rest of the stack
All guest prices and cost splits below are illustrative, except the HMRC rates used in the duty lines.
Illustrative current guest price: £5.00 for a qualifying draught pint (gross, including VAT).
Illustrative cost view per pint (planning split, not an industry average):
| Component | Illustrative amount | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Duty (now) | 49.7p | From HMRC rate × pure alcohol above |
| Duty (from 1 Feb 2027) | 52.0p | Same method at £20.34 |
| Product and distribution (ex duty) | £1.10 | Supplier invoice net of recoverable VAT; illustrative |
| Labour share of the pour | £0.90 | Illustrative allocation of bar labour |
| Rates, energy and other overhead share | £0.70 | Illustrative allocation |
| Contribution before overhead reallocation | rest of net | Not a full P&L |
Duty rise in this example: 2.3p. If suppliers pass through duty plus their own cost pressure, the product line can move by more than 2.3p. Operator quotes in the trade press put that wider pass-through, with VAT, in a band that can reach tens of pence before labour and rates are touched.
We put three columns on one sheet for each core pour: duty change, confirmed supplier change, and the labour or overhead change we choose to recover. We do not let "duty" become the label for the whole rise.
Three pricing options
Everything in these options is illustrative, including cover responses.
Baseline: 200 qualifying draught pints a day at £5.00 gross.
Option A: Absorb
- Keep the guest price at £5.00.
- Extra duty cost at about 2.3p × 200 = £4.60 a day before supplier moves.
- Cover risk: lowest sticker shock. Margin risk: highest if suppliers and labour also rise and we recover nothing.
- Use only while contribution can fund it, with a review date before 1 February 2027.
Option B: Staged
- Move 10p in January (illustrative) and a further 10p when duty lands in February, total +20p to £5.20.
- Day-one gross at the new price if volume holds: 200 × £5.20 = £1,040, versus £1,000 before.
- Cover risk: guests see two smaller moves. Communication risk: we must explain each step or it feels like drip pricing.
- Track covers and attach rates after each step for two weeks before the next change.
Option C: One go
- Move 30p once (illustrative, inside the operator-warned band) to £5.30 ahead of February.
- New gross for the day if volume holds: 200 × £5.30 = £1,060.
- Cover risk: highest sticker shock on day one. Admin risk: lowest, one till change, one chalkboard, one app update.
- Soften where we can: hold a session ale, protect a low-ABV or soft option, and brief the team on the one-sentence reason (duty plus wider costs, not "we felt like it").
Cover-risk note we write on the sheet
Assume, for illustration only, that a 30p one-go move cuts qualifying draught volume by 5%:
- Pints: 200 × 0.95 = 190.
- Gross: 190 × £5.30 = £1,007.
- Versus baseline £1,000: only £7 more cash, before cost changes.
- Versus holding volume at £5.30 (£1,060): £53 less cash.
Volume loss can erase the rise. We measure covers and mix, not just the new price point.
What we do this week
We pick our top five draught lines, write the duty maths for each ABV, add confirmed or expected supplier moves, and mark absorb, staged or one-go against each line with a cover-risk note and a review date before 1 February 2027.
