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- Good for
- Running the business
The UK Budget is scheduled for Wednesday 28 October 2026, according to the parliamentary announcement. Go into it with each site's current costs and a blank changes column. A headline cannot tell you what will leave your bank account.
Build three scenarios before the statement. Replace assumptions with confirmed measures afterwards, recording the nation, eligibility and effective date for each change. Low, mid and high mean cost pressure; they are not predictions of what the Chancellor will announce.
Start with the rates bill
Business rates are devolved: England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland have different arrangements. Do not apply an English multiplier across a UK estate.
The rates section of the UK rules crib, verified on 19 October, records these England-only 2026/27 facts:
- Qualifying retail, hospitality and leisure properties with rateable value below £51,000 use a 38.2p multiplier; those from £51,000 to £499,999 use 43.0p.
- Lower RHL multipliers replaced the previous 40% RHL relief. Qualification includes being occupied, wholly or mainly used for RHL and open to the visiting public.
- Qualifying pubs and live music venues get an extra 15% relief in 2026/27. Transitional relief caps 2026/27 increases at 5%, 15% or 30% depending on rateable value, and small business rate relief gives 100% off at rateable value up to £12,000, tapering to nil at £15,000.
- Reliefs and transitional arrangements can affect the amount payable. A multiplier calculation alone is not your final bill.
The crib marks future multipliers and some relief provisions for rechecking on 28 October. Treat those as questions for Budget day, not promised savings. See the linked multiplier guidance for the underlying source; the rates facts here are drawn only from the crib.
Illustrative arithmetic, before reliefs or other bill adjustments: an eligible English property's rateable value is £60,000.
- Convert the multiplier: 43.0p ÷ 100 = £0.43 per £1 of rateable value.
- Multiply: £60,000 × 0.43 = £25,800 a year before adjustments.
- Reconcile that calculation to the actual bill and its adjustment lines. Use the billed amount as the planning baseline.
Give every site the same input sheet
Record nation, rateable value, current annual rates payable, relief details and instalment dates. Alongside these, record annual labour, food and drink, energy and other operating costs. Use consistent accounting periods and exclude recoverable VAT from operating costs.
For each input, add its source, date and owner. Separate a signed supplier price from an assumption. Keep sales and volumes constant for the first cost test so that the effect is visible; test demand separately afterwards.
Worked low, mid and high scenarios
All figures and percentage changes below are illustrative planning assumptions, not proposed tax rates. Each scenario covers a full year. The rates changes are stress tests of the current bill, not statutory calculations.
Site A has annual rates payable of £24,000, labour costs of £300,000, purchases of £200,000 and energy costs of £30,000.
| Cost | Low assumption and extra cost | Mid assumption and extra cost | High assumption and extra cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rates | £24,000 × 0% = £0 | £24,000 × 5% = £1,200 | £24,000 × 10% = £2,400 |
| Labour | £300,000 × 1% = £3,000 | £300,000 × 3% = £9,000 | £300,000 × 5% = £15,000 |
| Purchases | £200,000 × 1% = £2,000 | £200,000 × 3% = £6,000 | £200,000 × 5% = £10,000 |
| Energy | £30,000 × 0% = £0 | £30,000 × 5% = £1,500 | £30,000 × 10% = £3,000 |
Add the extra costs:
- Low: £0 + £3,000 + £2,000 + £0 = £5,000.
- Mid: £1,200 + £9,000 + £6,000 + £1,500 = £17,700.
- High: £2,400 + £15,000 + £10,000 + £3,000 = £30,400.
For this illustration only, Site B has half of every baseline cost and the same percentage assumptions. Its extra costs are £5,000 ÷ 2 = £2,500, £17,700 ÷ 2 = £8,850, and £30,400 ÷ 2 = £15,200.
Estate totals are therefore:
- Low: £5,000 + £2,500 = £7,500.
- Mid: £17,700 + £8,850 = £26,550.
- High: £30,400 + £15,200 = £45,600.
In a real estate, calculate each site separately using its own contracts and rates position. Add pounds across sites; do not average percentage increases and apply them to the group.
What to capture on Budget day
- Rates: which nation, which properties, which financial year, and any eligibility or relief changes.
- Employment costs: any confirmed changes, their start dates and the payroll assumptions affected.
- Purchasing and energy: direct tax changes separately from unconfirmed supplier responses.
- Timing: annual cost impact separately from when bills will be paid.
A mid-case annual increase of £26,550 gives an illustrative monthly average of £26,550 ÷ 12 = £2,212.50. It does not establish the cash payment schedule. Put actual effective dates and instalments into the cash forecast before deciding what the business can afford.
