Hospitality leaders are the most upbeat since early 2024, but independents are not

The latest Business Confidence Survey from NIQ and Zonal, taken before the 28 October Budget, shows a clear split between groups and independents, The Morning Advertiser reports.

The upbeat side - 53% of leaders are optimistic about their own business over the next 12 months, up from 37% at the end of Q2 and the highest since early 2024. - Optimism about the sector as a whole rose seven points to 28%. - 84% grew or held revenue year on year in Q3, helped by the World Cup and good weather. - The tracker has now recorded five months in a row of like-for-like sales growth at managed groups. - 57% said profits were better than or in line with last year. Only 5% described their business as loss-making or unviable.

The other side: just 11% of independent businesses feel hopeful, the lowest level since the pandemic.

Costs still bite: 68% reported higher gas and electricity prices over three months, 84% are worried about food and drink inflation and 58% about interest rates. 80% said the UK is not welcoming to new investment.

What it means for operators: the VAT cut leaders ranked first did not come in the Budget, so the cost pressures above carry into 2027. Trading is holding up; margin is the fight. If you are setting 2027 budgets now, plan on volume growth doing the heavy lifting, not price.