Britain lost 977 licensed venues in a year, nearly 19 a week

The licensed estate keeps shrinking. NIQ's Hospitality Market Monitor, reported by The Caterer, counts 98,319 pubs, bars, restaurants and other licensed premises in Britain at September 2026.

The numbers - Down 1% year on year: 977 net closures, or nearly 19 a week. - Down 0.2% on the quarter, a net loss of 245 sites since June. - Heavy churn underneath: 2,436 venues closed in the three months to September and 2,191 opened, often in the same premises. - Casual dining is down 2.2% on the year and 23.4% smaller than at the start of 2020. - Licensed hotels are up 0.2% and holiday and caravan parks up 0.7%, helped by sustained demand for domestic breaks.

The mood: NIQ's Business Confidence Survey finds only 37% of leaders optimistic about the next 12 months, and its business tracker has logged sub-inflation growth for managed groups for 16 months running.

What changed in the Budget: no VAT cut. The small business rates relief threshold for hospitality, retail and leisure rises from £12,000 to £18,000 of rateable value, and the National Minimum Wage goes up 3.9%.

So what for groups: the net figure hides the real story, which is churn. Sites are still being taken, just by different operators and formats. If you are holding a weak casual dining unit, the question is who would trade it better, and whether that could be you with a different offer.