UKHospitality's Allen Simpson says a VAT cut is 'highly likely', just maybe not next week

UKHospitality chief executive Allen Simpson told The Morning Advertiser he is confident the sector will eventually get a VAT cut, speaking at a press briefing in Westminster on Tuesday 20 October. He also said it may not arrive in the Budget on Wednesday 28 October.

What he said - A VAT cut is the biggest and simplest lever the Government could pull, and in the near term it is "highly likely" - The Government has signalled it cannot fix everything in one Budget, and he took its acknowledgement of past damage to the sector as a positive - A Budget that isn't directly negative would be an improvement on the past two years - Hotel business rates remain a red line, and the business rates cut due in April 2027 shows the direction of travel - Job losses could speed up through the busy festive quarter if the Budget gives no targeted support and spending softens

Where the VAT push stands The #VATsTheProblem campaign, led by UKHospitality with chef Tom Kerridge, asks for hospitality VAT to fall from 20% to 10%. It had passed 400,000 signatures when the MA published. Simpson said several European countries already have similar measures, and he thinks the Conservatives could back a cut too.

What it means for operators: plan 2027 on the current 20% VAT and treat any cut as upside. The Budget details on rates, labour costs and duty will move your numbers more certainly than the headline ask.